The dynamics of social deprivation in Mexico

Authors

  • José Carlos Ramírez El Colegio de la Frontera Norte
  • Vivian Kadelbach Anahuac-Mexico-Norte University
  • Leovardo Mata Anahuac-Mexico-Norte University

Keywords:

Hidden and direct Markov models, Mexico's social deprivation, poverty profile, latent states, ergodic vectors

Abstract

This paper aims to model the dynamics of social deprivation in Mexico using a Markovian approach. First, we establish a scenario where a list of items characterizing social deprivation evolves as a first-order Markov chain under the sample period (2002-2012). Then, we estimate latent states and ergodic vectors of a hidden-Markov model to verify the strength of the conclusions drawn from such a scenario. After collecting results from both kinds of analyses, we find a similar pattern of impoverishment. The paper's conclusions state that the evolution of Mexico's deprivation profile may slightly worsen soon.

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Published

2021-06-04

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